Five elections in Maine were decided through the ranked choice voting process - both the Republican and Democratic Gubernatorial races, the Democratic Second Congressional District race, the Republican State Senate District 4 race, and the Republican State House District 58 race.

The Maine State Police gathered all the data sticks and paper ballots from jurisdictions that did not use ballot reading machines. This process commenced last week and required the state police to go to every municipality, secure the materials, and return them to Augusta.

The Secretary of State’s staff then proceeded to upload the data, run the paper ballots through a ballot reader, and engage in meticulous data reconciliation with the data submitted on election night from each municipality.

All of this was done with all interested parties on hand. Both parties, all the relevant campaigns, the press, and any other political junkies who so desired were able to observe the process in person and/or on a live streamed YouTube channel.

As you can imagine, this is an incredibly tedious and uneventful process to observe, much to the disappointment of anyone hoping to cast aspersions on our democratic process or ranked choice voting. However, it does take several days to complete the process, especially for statewide races.

There was an attempt by one conservative media outlet to suggest that voter data was missing or lost from two or three towns, but this was entirely false. One city gave the state police the data stick from its municipal elections, instead of its state elections, and one town’s data stick was faulty. In the first case, the state police went back and retrieved the correct data stick, and in the other case the state police retrieved the paper ballots from the town, in order to run them through the ballot reader in Augusta in an entirely public process. These sorts of minor issues are unavoidable, and ultimately inconsequential.

These five races were finally determined around 2 am Friday morning, June 19th.

In the Republican Gubernatorial primary, after candidates Libby, Wessels, Jones, McCarthy, Mason, and Bush were eliminated as the lowest vote getters in each round, Bobby Charles, who was the top vote getter in the first round, prevailed over Ben Midgely. The final result was Charles 60.3% to Midgley 39.7%.

As discussed in Preti’s election recap memo, Bobby Charles is the Republican most openly and proudly running under President Trump’s mantle. The only question in this race was really whether Bush or Midgely would end up in the head-to-head matchup in the final round with Charles, and whether all the other candidates openly opposing Charles would help one of the moderates prevail. In reality, many of the other candidates’ supporters voted for Charles in the subsequent rounds.

In the Democratic Gubernatorial primary, Hannah Pingree prevailed in a close ranked choice run off after falling a couple points short of Nirav Shah in the first vote. Angus King III was the first candidate to be eliminated. His voters did not significantly change the results for the other candidates, thus leading Shenna Bellows, as the fourth-place finisher to be eliminated next. A larger number of Bellows voters chose Hannah Pingree over Troy Jackson and Nirav Shah, thus leading to the elimination of Jackson in the next round. As expected Pingree also benefitted more from the subsequent choices made by Jackson voters and thus prevailed in the head-to-head matchup with Nirav Shah. The final result is Pingree 56.2% to Shah 43.8%.

Long time Republican and now unenrolled or “independent” candidate Rick Bennett earlier qualified for the November ballot, submitting the requisite number of signatures.

Pingree is perceived as less moderate than Shah or King, but less progressive than Bellows and Jackson. She will need to convince voters looking for a moderate Governor while retaining progressive Democrats, in order to fend off Bennett, or not allow him to become a spoiler who benefits Charles.

In the Democratic Second CD election, Matt Dunlap won in the closest of the ranked choice races. Candidate Paige Loud, who garnered 10% of the vote in the first round, was immediately eliminated. It would have taken the preponderance of her voters to push third place finisher Jordan Wood into second place over Matt Dunlap. That did not happen and thus Wood was eliminated in the next round. In the head-to-head matchup between Matt Dunlap and Joe Baldacci, who had been the first-place finisher on election night, Dunlap prevailed. The final result is Dunlap 52.5% to Baldacci 47.5%. Dunlap now faces former Governor Paul LePage in the General Election in November. LePage will be favored in this Trump leaning district.

In the State Senate District 4 Republican primary, which is parts of Piscataquis and Penobscot Counties, current Representative, Chad Perkins, prevailed over Joseph Guerin, Zachary Wood, and Gregory Pierce. Perkins was close to winning a majority on election night with Guerin, the spouse of current Senator Stacey Guerin, in second place. Perkins is expected to win the seat in November.

In the State House District 58 (Belgrade, Fayette, Mount Vernon, New Sharon, Rome, and Vienna) Republican primary, Dexter Bridges prevailed over Lawrence Bessey and Jeffrey Harris. On election night Bridges and Harris were only separated by one vote at 37% each. After Harris was eliminated, Bridges received over 50% support. Bridges’ win avoided an awkward situation for the Republicans given that Bessey had dropped out of the race, but not in time to be removed from the ballot and theoretically win the primary. Bridges will face current Unenrolled Representative Sharon Frost in November.

RECOUNTS

With the ranked choice races finished, the Secretary of State’s office will now conduct the pending recounts in three legislative races this week. In the State Senate District 30 (Gorham and part of Scarborough) Democratic primary, Sophia Warren beat Eleanor Sato by only 24 votes. Both are current State Representatives in their respective towns, which they both won overwhelmingly. That recount began on Monday June 22 with a result expected this afternoon. Whoever prevails in the primary will be favored to win in November.

Both the House recounts are scheduled for Thursday, June 25. In the House District 135 (part of Kennebunk) Democratic primary, Lisa Pratt received only 22 more votes than Rachel Phipps. Whoever prevails after the recount will be favored in November.

Finally, in the House District 49 Republican Primary, Suzanne Andresen received only 8 more votes than her opponent, Nicolas Hamlin. This district leans Democratic but can be won by a Republican depending on the candidates and which way the wind is blowing politically.

Preti will provide more updates as the November ballot becomes even more settled after candidate dropouts and replacements, and we are able to make better informed assessments of the various Unenrolled candidates running, especially in the State Senate elections, and their potential impacts on legislative majorities in the next Legislature.

Please reach out with any questions, insights into how to support the candidates of your preference, opportunities to meet and discuss your concerns with candidates, and plans for the next legislative session.