Maine Primary Election Results and Analysis

ELECTION RESULTS

Election Day was yesterday, June 9th, and the breaking news is that there are still significant unknowns, in terms of who will be the Democratic candidates in both the Gubernatorial and the 2nd Congressional District races, and the Republican Gubernatorial race. As of this writing, none of the results reflect 100% of the precincts reporting. Over 97% of the results are in, and this will only make small differences in a few races. 

THE CONGRESSIONAL AND U.S. SENATE RACES

Current 5-term Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins was unopposed in her primary, as was current 9-term Democratic Congresswoman in the 1st Congressional District Chellie Pingree, and Republican former Governor and 2nd CD candidate Paul LePage.

In the 1st CD Republican Ron Russell prevailed in his primary against Joshua Pietrowicz, 54%- 45%, and will go on to challenge Congresswoman Pingree in November. This will be the second time he has been the Republican “sacrificial lamb” in the race to unseat Pingree.

The 2nd CD Democratic primary was a hard-fought contest amongst three of the four candidates. The current results are State Senator (and brother of former Congressman and Governor, John Baldacci) Joe Baldacci at 31.5%, former State Representative, former Secretary of State, and current State Auditor Matt Dunlap at 28.9%, former Congressional staffer Jordan Wood at 28.7%, and Paige Loud at 10.9%.

With no one garnering over 50% of the votes, this will now go into the ranked choice voting process. It is somewhat surprising that Loud was able to garner over 10% in the first round, but she will be eliminated, and any of her voters who listed a second choice will have those votes distributed to the remaining candidates. This will not be enough to have any candidate reach the 50% percent needed, but will decide who, between Dunlap and Wood, will remain in the final round against Baldacci. Given how close the top three candidates are, any of the three could prevail.

Whomever it is will have a very challenging race against LePage in a Republican leaning district that, while held by current Democratic Congressman Jared Golden for 4 terms, has been won by Trump in all 3 election cycles with him on the ballot. Golden has chosen not to seek re-election.

In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race, as expected by anyone paying attention since last summer, Graham Platner won handily with 72% of the vote. Current Governor Janet Mills, who had announced a suspension of her campaign several weeks ago but also reminded voters she was still on the ballot last week, garnered 19%, and David Costello, who previously ran as a Democratic challenger to current Independent Senator Angus King, garnered 8%.

This is the race to watch by observers throughout the country, as it could decide which party controls in the U.S. Senate next year, thus, either stopping the Trump agenda in its tracks, and/or, depending on who controls the U.S. House of Representatives, leading to the removal of President Trump from office.

The race has also become a spectacle due to both the nature of the type of candidate Platner is, (a well-educated, well-spoken former Marine from an upper middle-class background, but now living a working-class life as an oyster farmer) and, more importantly, several revelations concerning Platner’s behavior in the past. Suffice it to say that his populist policy positions in opposition to the “Epstein and billionaire class”, and his willingness to join likeminded progressives to openly criticize the current Israeli regime’s treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, has made him a target of relentless attacks. Many are based on his actual, and well-documented, behavior.

Previous to Trump, his behavior would have been considered objectively abhorrent and still is by the left leaning populace. However, his willingness to publicly acknowledge and agree that his thinking in the past was offensive and should be called out and remonstrated has motivated young people, independents, and most progressives, to passionately support his candidacy.

This is helped by the precarious position that Trump has put Collins in as a famously moderate Republican, who currently chairs the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee. Collins influence in the Senate, and especially her ability to direct resources towards Maine remain significant considerations for Maine voters. Collins has also been renowned for her staff’s responsiveness to Mainers needs, and her ability to get action on behalf of her constituents no matter which party is in office.

Trump has publicly and very harshly criticized Collins in the instances when she has voted against him, and she has refused to endorse him in his campaigns. But the President and his followers in Maine, understand the importance of returning her to office in order to protect Trump and his policies. However, moderate voters, especially many women, who have always been loyal supporters in the past, hold her responsible for the current make-up of the Supreme Court, and her unwillingness to hold President Trump accountable for the war in Iran, the killing of citizens by ICE, and the negative impacts of the tariffs and other policies on the cost of living.

Due to this U.S. Senate race, Maine will remain in the spotlight nationally, if not internationally, at least through November, and perhaps into the next year.

It is notable that over 200,000 voters took part on the Democratic Gubernatorial primary while only about 120,000 votes were cast in the Republican Gubernatorial primary. The data from absentee ballots showed that over 70% of requests were for the Democratic primary ballot. Municipal offices also report that more than 65% of unenrolled or “independent” voters who requested a party ballot chose to vote on the Democratic primary.

Maine now has a semi-open primary meaning that voters not enrolled in the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian or Green Parties can vote in the primary of their choosing (only one, of course) without having to enroll in that party.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

Both the Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial races will be decided by ranked choice voting as no one received more than 50% of the vote in either.

In the Republican primary Bobby Charles, as expected, is the front runner, with 37.3%. Jonathan Bush is a distant second with 20.3%, and Ben Midgely is a very close 3rd at 20.1%. There are only 169 votes separating Bush and Midgely. Former Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason received 11.3% of the vote.  There are eight candidates in this race but the bottom four, Libby, Wessels, Jones and McCarthy received less than 5% of the vote each. If their respective voters made second choice votes (which amongst Republican voters is less likely than amongst Democrats) those votes will be redistributed for each candidate in the order above.

Mathematically the votes of the bottom four candidates cannot push Charles over the 50% mark so a great deal will depend on whether the voters who listed Garrett Mason as their first choice made a second choice, and for whom. These voters could theoretically push Charles over the 50% mark, depending on the behavior of the supporters of the previously eliminated candidates, but that is unlikely. However, they will decide whether it is Bush or Midgely who ends up in the head-to-head against Charles, while the other is eliminated. Bush and Midgely represent the more moderate voters in this primary, and it is notable that they received the 2nd and 3rd most votes. It is likely that the preponderance of their collective voters chose the other as a second choice, and they are the voters who most likely MADE a second choice amongst Republican voters. While Charles remains favored, the race could go either way.

The Democratic Gubernatorial Primary is even closer. As expected, Shah is the frontrunner with 26.9%, followed by Pingree at 23.3%, Jackson at 21%, Bellows at 20.7%, and King at 8.2%. Thus, King will be eliminated first and his votes redistributed. Given that Jackson and Bellows currently are only separated by 585 votes the next candidate eliminated will be decided by King’s second choice voters. Although it would be surprising if most of King’s supporters did not choose Shah as their second choice. Interestingly, whoever is eliminated between Jackson and Bellows, their voters will most likely have chosen the other as their next choice thus giving them a boost in their need to overcome Pingree as the head-to-head match-up against Shah. Further, amongst Pingree, Jackson and Bellows, whomever is eliminated in the 3rd round, their voters are more likely to have chosen, either Pingree or Jackson or Bellows as their second choice. Thus, creating an opportunity for any of those three to prevail.

Of course, there is one Gubernatorial candidate who will be on the ballot in November who did not have a primary contest, but the party primaries are very important to him. Former Republican Senate President and former Maine Chair of the Republican Party, now Unenrolled State Senator Rick Bennett is running as an independent and will be a formidable opponent. He is a truly moderate candidate in terms of environmental and social justice issues, but more conservative on economic policies. He is currently spurned by most elected Republicans and Trump supporters, but is respected by traditional Maine Republicans, moderates, and has been endorsed by several elected or previously serving Democrats.

If Bobby Charles wins the Republican primary this will benefit Bennett tremendously, if Bush or Midgely win, his ability to attract traditional Republicans is diminished. If Shah wins the Democratic Primary his ability to attract moderates of all stripes is diminished. He probably has a better chance with moderates if Jackson or Bellows prevail. Pingree can probably challenge him for the moderates to some degree, but not as significantly as Shah.

LEGISLATIVE PRIMARIES

There were a small number of legislative primaries decided yesterday, one of which will require a ranked choice runoff.

In the State Senate, Republicans had four primaries. In Senate District 3, covering parts of Kennebec, Somerset and Penobscot Counties, Joel Stetkis prevailed over Danny Costain.

In Senate District 4, covering Piscataquis and part of Penobscot Counties, Chad Perkins is currently in the lead with just under 50%, thus this race will go to a ranked choice runoff. In order for Joseph Guerin (husband of current Senator Stacey Guerin) to overtake Perkins in the final round, almost all of the two lesser vote getters second choices would need to go to Guerin.

In Senate District 6, current House Leader, Billy Bob Faulkingham defeated Ken “Bucket” Davis handily 80% - 20%.

In the three above races, the primary is the equivalent of the general election. The Republican candidates will win the general election in November.

In Senate District 26. Ken Cianchette defeated Peter Violette 59% - 40%. This sets up a rematch between Cianchette and current State Senator Tim Nangle in the Cumberland County seat centered in Windham. It has traditionally been a swing seat represented either by Republicans or moderate Democrats, like Bill Diamond.

On the Democratic side, there were three State Senate Primaries. With long time Senator Peggy Rotundo choosing to not seek re-election in Senate District 21 in Lewiston, Rep. Mana Abdi Ran against local Chamber of Commerce President, Shanna Cox. Rotundo endorsed Cox and Cox won 56% to 43%.

In Senate District 30, consisting of Gorham and Scarborough, Senator Stacy Brenner, also chose not to seek re-election. Two current Representatives, Sophie Warren of Scarborough and Ellie Sato of Gorham ran for the seat. They each overwhelming won their respective towns, and other overseas ballots have not yet been counted, but currently Warren has prevailed by 24 votes. This will almost definitely be a recount.

In Senate District 35, part of York County, Rep. Michelle Meyer handily defeated former Rep. Deane Rykerson 76% to 23%.

In these three races the Democrat is expected to prevail in November.

In the House there were 13 Republican primaries and 8 Democratic primaries. The results for these races are not all finalized and most will not impact the balance of the House in November. Preti will provide another update before the general election once the November ballot is finalized with races to watch and likely outcomes.