Road to Copenhagen: Events Leading up to UN Climate Change Conference
Handbook
10.06.2009
The following is a summary of events leading up to the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15) to be held in Copenhagen this December.
Bangkok (9/28 – 10/9):
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is a treaty signed over a decade ago intended to reduce global warming and combat the effects of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol was an addition to the UNFCCC that is a legally binding international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Copenhagen is intended to improve upon Kyoto. To that end, the UNFCCC nations have held a series of meetings leading up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 15) in Copenhagen. The current meeting is being held in Bangkok, previous meetings were held in Bonn. March 29 – April 8, and June 1 – 12. The purpose of the Bangkok meeting is to identify the key elements for an agreement in Copenhagen.
Toward that end, Bangkok is intended to further develop the negotiating text that will be finalized and agreed upon in Copenhagen.
Both the level of emissions reduction and financial aid for developing countries remain two major sources of discussion and disagreement and will likely be a source of great debate in Bangkok. Bangkok will focus on those 5 areas subscribed to at the New York Summit as well as areas in which some progress had been made at previous UNFCCC negotiating sessions and in which progress can be extended including: adaptation action, REDD, technology transfer, capacity building, and institutional arrangements for finance.
Barcelona (11/2 – 11/6):
This will serve as the final round of UNFCCC negotiations on the working text before Copenhagen. Those issues not resolved in Bangkok will either be resolved in Barcelona or negotiated in Copenhagen for a final agreement.
Copenhagen (12/ 7 – 12/18):
The events leading up to Copenhagen are intended to develop a working draft which may be finalized and agreed upon by December. There are a number of areas that remain in serious doubt. It is possible that some of these issues will be settled in Bangkok or Barcelona.
There are a number of mechanisms suggested for reducing carbon emissions including the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) Plan. REDD allows rich countries to pay tropical nations to protect their trees and claim carbon credits toward their targets. (III.C106) Other mechanisms include a stabilization goal or a global cap and trade program which would reduce emissions from industrial countries by 20-40% and also allow these countries to buy offsets from abroad to count toward their credits. (I.31) There is a great deal of controversy surrounding the details of these mechanisms such as how, when, and determining a baseline from which rich countries will cut their emissions. (III.A17) The United States is in an especially awkward position because it did not ratify Kyoto. As a result, the United States argues that its baseline should be different than those countries that signed Kyoto. The United States wants its own targets to be weaker, as a matter of fairness, because the US is starting from a different position. (II.A5) In contrast, industrialized nations that ratified Kyoto are opposed to weaker targets for the United States. (III.A7)
The relationship between industrialized and developing nations under the agreement is another source for controversy. Simply defining the rich and poor countries is a source of considerable disagreement. (I.PP.8) Furthermore, identifying the obligations of the industrialized and developing nations is even more controversial. The developing nations feel that industrialized nations should help them pay for the effects of climate change that resulted from the actions of industrialized nations. (II.3) Industrialized nations do not want to hinder their own economic recovery, or pay too much to develop countries that will compete with their industries. The working draft includes a provision designed in anticipation of protectionist policies by industrialized nations: it prohibits these nations from erecting trade barriers to compensate for increased cost of producing goods in carbon-constrained economies like the US and Europe. (I.23) The United States and European nations are opposed to this provision. Nevertheless, there is agreement that rich countries will have to pay something to poorer countries immediately (I.33) and hundreds of billions over the next decade. (II.33) The level of funding is a source of considerable disagreement and has yet to be determined. Even once those numbers are finalized, developing nations remain suspicious of whether the industrialized nations will fulfill their financial obligations. (IV.4) Developing nations, including China and India, will have their own obligations to reduce their growth of emissions by 2020. (I.34) The targets for these reductions have yet to be determined and are quite controversial. Developing countries will not act to reduce their emissions without financial support from the industrialized countries. (III.B5).